A shock to coffee lovers... "Coffee prices will continue to rise until mid-next year" Why?

It has been forecasted that coffee prices will continue to rise until mid-next year due to a shortage of coffee bean supply caused by abnormal weather conditions in the cultivation regions. In particular, European consumers are expected to incur additional costs on top of the rising bean prices to drink coffee due to the European Union's (EU) Forest Land Use Regulation (EUDR), which will be implemented later this year.

On the 9th (local time), Giuseppe Lavazza, chairman of the Italian coffee brand Luigi Lavazza, told Bloomberg News in an interview, "There are concerns about a sharp rise in coffee bean prices due to a shortage of harvests in Vietnam, the world's largest Robusta bean producer," he predicted.

He said, "Due to a poor harvest this year, we are paying $1,000 more per ton for Vietnamese coffee beans than the gift price," adding, "This is the first time in industry history, and above all, this phenomenon is expected to last for a long time."


The gift price of this variety has surged by approximately 60% so far this year due to concerns over supply shortages caused by damage to coffee trees in some parts of Vietnam from hot and dry weather earlier this year, reaching a record high of $4,667 per ton on this day.

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Robusta varieties are mainly used in blending products that mix instant coffee, espresso, and coffee varieties.

Along with this, it is also expected that the harvest of Arabica beans will decrease last year due to drought in major coffee-growing regions of Brazil.

In addition to concerns about supply shortages, Lavazza CEO Luigi Lavazza stated that production costs have increased by over 800 million euros (approximately 1.2 trillion won) in the past two years due to factors such as the Suez Canal blockage and rising transportation costs driven by the strengthening of the dollar. He also mentioned the potential impact of the implementation of the EUDR by the end of this year.

"Coffee manufacturers are trying to ease the burden of proving that the beans supplied since 2020, which they are rushing to purchase, are not related to deforestation," he added, "as a result, coffee prices will become more expensive."

EUDR is a regulation that recognizes the EU's concern over severe climate change and biodiversity loss caused by deforestation. It requires companies importing and selling seven items, including coffee, to conduct due diligence on deforestation in their supply chains starting three years before enforcement. Failure to comply may result in product confiscation or seizure and fines of at least 4% of EU sales.